All paths

The Data Thinker

Read a number without being fooled by it

Built for the moment someone shows you a statistic and expects agreement. Probability from counting, base rates that overturn intuition, and the reasoning discipline to say precisely why a claim doesn't follow.

3 stagesabout 5 weeksintermediate

Create an account to track this path and pick up where you left off.

Start the path

The sequence

Work the stages in order. Each one is a full course — you can wander off and come back, the path keeps your place.

  1. 1

    Stage 1 · Magnitude

    Thinking in Numbers

    Before you can judge a statistic you need a feel for size. Start here even if it looks easy.

    3 lessons48 min

  2. 2

    Stage 2 · Uncertainty

    Chance & Uncertainty

    Sample spaces, combining chances, and the base-rate trap that fools most professionals.

    3 lessons46 min

  3. 3

    Stage 3 · Argument

    The Logic Engine

    Where claims break. The difference between a valid inference and a persuasive one.

    3 lessons44 min